The Inexact Science of Picking First

By Casey Reese

            With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, sports fans will assuredly hear whether or not Player X or Player Y merit being the first overall pick. After all, the first overall pick will undoubtedly change the fortune of your franchise for the better or worse as a result of the financial commitments you must make, as the pick commands a very generous contract (Sam Bradford, the 2010 first overall selection, received a contract worth a potential $86 million dollars over the course of 6 years, which is not bad for a guy who’s never played professional football).

Unfortunately, this player immediately becomes a lightning rod for criticism if he does not pan out, and receives all of the praise if the franchise turns around. Indeed, in recent times, Sam Bradford was commended for the turnaround of the St. Louis Rams in his first season, in which he set the rookie record for completions in a season, and became only the third quarterback in league history to start all 16 games and throw for 3,000 yards in his first season.

The case of JaMarcus Russell is a sad reminder of what happens if the number one pick does not go as planned. After being lauded as a top prospect, who could throw the ball great distance and lead the team, he was selected first overall by the Oakland Raiders in 2007. It only went downhill from there. Going 7-18 as a starter, he put together the lowest quarterback rating for a starting NFL quarterback (50.0) in the ten previous years, throwing for 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions in 3 years before ultimately being cut. Not only was he cut, he failed to make a roster after multiple tryouts with other teams before being arrested in a sting operation for possession of codeine. Russell is now largely considered to be the definitive NFL “bust,” or player who does not pan out after a high selection.

The 1-15 Carolina Panthers possess the first overall pick in 2011, the unenviable position to select first. How they select could ultimately decide the future of their franchise, but does not guarantee a successful player. Here’s a comparison of the last ten first overall selections:

2010 Sam Bradford St. Louis Rams – Bradford, in his first NFL season, set many rookie records in addition to being widely regarded as a franchise quarterback after only one season. Early returns show him to be well worth the investment, and already is considered one of the best first overall selections. (Further Reading)

2009 Matthew Stafford Detroit Lions – Stafford showed great promise in the games he played as a rookie, despite only playing 10 games and throwing for 13 touchdowns to 20 interceptions.  In a career already rife with injuries, he has played 13 games in two seasons, showing much improvement in his second season, in which he compiled 6 touchdowns to 1 interception in three starts in addition to 535 yards passing. The jury is out on this pick thus far. (Further Reading)

2008 Jake Long Miami Dolphins – Jake Long, considered the safe pick by the new regime in Miami, is one of the few non-quarterbacks taken first overall. Proving to be an anchor on the left side of the line, Long has been selected to 3 Pro-Bowls in addition to two All-Pro (one 1^st team and one 2^nd team) in his 3 seasons. A bona fide left tackle, he has paved the way for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams for this rebuilding team, and has been honored as one of the best first overall picks in recent times. (Further Reading)

2007 JaMarcus Russell Oakland Raiders – As previously mentioned, a bust. Currently out of the league after only playing 3 seasons with team, Russell has not panned out and his high contract was not worth the money. The consensus is that he will not live up to the standards of the first overall pick if he ever makes it back to the NFL. The type of player to avoid if picking first, with character and work ethic issues that limited his success. (Further Reading)

2006 Mario Williams Houston Texans – The Texans surprised everyone by choosing Mario Williams over Vince Young and Reggie Bush. The gamble has paid off, however, as Williams has quickly become one of the most feared passrushers in the NFL, amassing nearly 50 sacks in his short career. Bush, the second overall pick and one of the most celebrated collegiate players of all time, has not panned out as expected, while Young, the offensive rookie of the year in 2006, has played his way out of Tennessee, where he is expected to be traded or released once a collective bargaining agreement is in place. (Further Reading)

2005 Alex Smith San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers selected Alex Smith, a quarterback from Utah, as the first overall selection in the 2005 NFL draft, instead of Cal’s Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers led the Green Bay Packers to an NFL championship in the most recent NFL season over our own Steelers. Smith has had a far less effective career in San Francisco, playing 54 games out of a possible 96 in a career marred by inefficient play, turnover in the coaching staff, and injuries. While he remains with the team, the 49ers are expected to select a quarterback either this year or next, and he is not expected to ever live up to his first overall selection after taking a pay cut to remain with the team and not being able to hold down his starting position, most recently loosing it to Troy Smith, the Heisman trophy winner from Ohio who played for the Baltimore Ravens for a handful of seasons. (Further Reading)

2004 Eli Manning San Diego Chargers – The Chargers selected Manning first overall. Manning refused to play for San Diego. The Giants then traded for Manning, with the Chargers receiving the 4^th overall selection in the 2004 NFL Draft (Phillip Rivers), a first round selection the next year (Shawne Merriman), and a 3^rd round selection (Nate Kaeding). While Manning won a Super Bowl with the Giants, it is Rivers who is regarded as the better quarterback. Merriman had success immediately upon his arrival in the NFL, but has since faded out. Kaeding is one of the most consistent placekickers in the NFL. While the trade is regarded as relatively equal now, the third quarterback taken that year, Pittsburgh’s own Ben Roethlisberger, has won 2 Super Bowls and led the Steelers to another. Drew Brees, the player who Rivers replaced, won a Super Bowl with the New Orleans Saints. Manning has not lived up to the expectations despite his Super Bowl ring and Pro Bowl selection, largely due to comparisons with his brother, former 1^st overall pick Peyton. Manning is, however, a durable starter for the Giants and a quarterback for the team to be built around. Certainly a solid first overall pick, in a drama laden story that involved quarterbacks who won 4 combined Super Bowls from 2005-2010. (Further Reading)

2003 Carson Palmer Cincinnati Bengals – While considered a franchise quarterback early on in his career, Palmer’s luster has faded along with the talent of much of his team. Despite two AFC North titles under his belt, Palmer has proved inconsistent as a starter, with his team failing to put much talent around him. After several season in Cincinnati, Palmer has reiterated trade demands in recent months, with signs pointing to him not being with the team sooner rather than later. A quality pick nonetheless, with limited production at times and great talent others, who can certainly carve his place in NFL history with a fresh start.(Further Reading)

2002 David Carr Houston Texans – As the first player ever selected by the Texans, Carr won the inaugural game for the expansion team in 2002. It only went downhill from there. With a penchant for being sacked ludicrous amounts of times (76 in his rookie season) rather than being the game changer previous first overall picks had been, Carr was ultimately released by the Texans in 2007 after the team traded for Matt Schaub. Carr signed on with the Carolina Panthers, where he managed to once again not play up to expectations, albeit low ones. After two years backing up Eli Manning, Carr signed with the 49ers, where he played one game and amassed a passer rating of 23.6 in the only game he played, in relief of Alex Smith. His poor play lead the team to play Troy Smith over him in the next game, and his career is likely to be regulated to backup or third string quarterback for his remaining years. A pick that certainly would be regarded as a bust, although that may not be his fault entirely. (Further Reading)

2001 Michael Vick Atlanta Falcons – The San Diego Chargers possessed the first overall pick in this years draft, trading it to the Atlanta Falcons who selected Vick, a player most expected to revolutionize the quarterback position. Vick became the first quarterback to ever rush for over 1,000 yards in a single season, while making the Pro Bowl 3 times with the team. As you almost certainly already know, however, his career in Atlanta was derailed after he was sent to prison for his part in an illegal underground dog-fighting ring. After sitting out two seasons in jail and one season as a backup in Philadelphia, Vick returned as a starter, showing marked improvement and being selected to another Pro Bowl while leading the Eagles to the playoffs. One of the great redemption stories in NFL history, the 2011 comeback player of the year showed that sometimes, promise can be regained if you can confront your past and become the player you were expected to be. (Further Reading)

            With the success rate of the past 10 picks being around 7/10, with Vick now playing for the Eagles and Manning for the Giants, it can be seen that this pick is certainly risky business. With no guarantee with success, the Panthers are certainly in an unenviable position, which can either start the franchise on a new path towards success, or set the franchise back several years. Stay tuned to see who the team selects, for the scrutinizing eyes of the sports world will be affixed to this new player.

Sources:

www.nfl.com

Wikipedia

NFL List of all time #1 overall picks with Pro Bowl Comparison